Ontario Fall Economic Statement 2025

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy delivered the 2025 Ontario Fall Economic Statement (ON FES 2025) on November 6, 2025. The 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario doesn’t introduce major changes to personal and business tax measures. However, it allocates funding to several provincial programs that support businesses affected by US tariffs. The ON FES 2025 estimates a $13.5 billion deficit for the 2025-26 fiscal year, an improvement from the $14.6 billion deficit projected in the 2025 budget.  

Estimated surplus (deficits)

Business tax measures 

ON FES 2025 amends the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC) rules to expand the timing of when manufacturing and processing (M&P) equipment expenditures can be incurred to qualify. M&P equipment purchased on or after March 23, 2023 will qualify if available for use in the taxation year and the related expenditures were incurred in either the current tax year or the one immediately prior, provided the other eligibility criteria are met.   

Currently, M&P equipment must be both purchased and available for use in the same tax year to qualify.  

This change will be effective retroactive to eligible expenditures incurred on or after March 23, 2023.   

Furthermore, Ontario reiterates the temporary enhancements to the OMMITC proposed in Ontario Budget 2025 which will: 

• Increase the OMMITC rate to 15% (from 10%).  
• Expand eligibility to include certain non-Canadian controlled private corporations (non-CCPCs) but only on a non-refundable basis (with a carry forward period of up to 10 taxation years for any unused non-refundable credits). 

These enhancements will be effective for qualifying M&P buildings, machinery, and equipment purchased and made available for use on or after May 15, 2025 and before January 1, 2030.   

Ontario also reiterates plans for the OMMITC to expire effective January 1, 2030, subject to a review of the credit’s effectiveness every three years.  

Sales tax and excise measures

HST relief for first-time home buyers on new homes 

Ontario plans to introduce a rebate for the full 8% provincial portion of the HST on new homes valued up to $1 million (with some relief available on homes valued more than $1 million) for first-time home buyers. Combined with a proposed federal rebate, this measure would eliminate the full 13% HST on qualifying homes, including substantially renovated homes, for first-time buyers in Ontario. The province will work with the federal government to make Ontario’s new rebate available for agreements of purchase and sale entered into on or after May 27, 2025.  

Other notable measures

Ontario’s tax action plan 

Ontario will develop a multi-year tax action plan to make the province more competitive. The plan will focus on updating Ontario’s personal and corporate income taxes to encourage business investment and provide relief for individuals and families. The province notes that more details will be provided in the 2026 Ontario budget. 

Online beneficial ownership registry 

Ontario proposes to implement an online beneficial ownership registry for privately held businesses in 2027. Under proposed changes, these corporations must submit beneficial ownership information through an online registry. The registry would provide access to some or all the information to law enforcement, tax authorities, and regulatory bodies. 

Currently, these types of corporations are required to collect and maintain information about individuals with significant control; but law enforcement, tax authorities, and regulatory bodies must submit a request to the corporation for this information.  

Provincial investment 

Ontario continues to invest in programs to help Ontario businesses and workers amid US tariffs and economic uncertainty, including: 

• Protect Ontario Financing Program – $4 billion in continued support for Ontario businesses that have been directly impacted by higher tariff rates in the steel, aluminum, copper and auto sectors. This program was first announced in the 2025 Ontario budget.  
• Ontario Together Trade Fund – Funding to help small and medium-sized businesses adapt their production, explore new markets, and expand interprovincial trade 
• Invest Ontario Fund – Continued support to provide tailored services and financial support to attract major investments in the province 
• Special economic zones – Special economic zones will help streamline approvals for projects deemed critical to the province. Draft legislation is currently open for public consultation until November 16. 

In addition, Ontario is investing an additional $1.6 billion through the Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program to accelerate the construction of homes and critical infrastructure. In addition, the province has enhanced the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund with a $100 million increase over two years to help municipalities deliver critical services. 

Previously announced measures 

Ontario Shortline Railway Investment Tax Credit 

A temporary 50% refundable corporate income tax credit of up to $8,500 per owned or leased railway track mile. This credit is intended for qualifying shortline railways on eligible railway track maintenance and rehabilitation expenditures in Ontario. The proposed credit, originally announced in the 2025 Ontario budget, would be effective for expenditures incurred on or after May 15, 2025 and before January 1, 2030. Certification by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation will be required.  

Gas tax and fuel tax rates 

Ontario permanently cuts the gasoline tax by 5.7 cents/litre and the diesel tax by 5.3 cents/litre, effective July 1, 2025. These reductions hold the provincial gas and diesel tax component of fuel prices to 9 cents/litre. 

Ontario Fertility Treatment Expenses Tax Credit 

A refundable tax credit covering 25% of eligible fertility treatment expenses, up to $20,000, for a maximum annual credit of $5,000, starting in the 2025 tax year. 

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Disclaimer

_{The information contained herein is general in nature and is based on proposals that are subject to change. It is not, and should not be construed as, accounting, legal, or tax advice or an opinion provided by Doane Grant Thornton LLP to the reader. This material may not be applicable to, or suitable for, specific circumstances or needs and may require consideration of other factors not described herein.}